ESPN ranks Florida, Duke, and Illinois as top three college basketball favorites

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf released a preseason tier list for the 2026-27 men’s college basketball season, placing the Florida Gators, Duke Blue Devils, and Illinois Fighting Illini in the top tier. The three programs are viewed as the primary national championship contenders because of their high ceilings and proven depth. This grouping comes one week before the season begins, a period when the outcome of dozens of lawsuits across the country will determine the roster strength of dozens of other teams.

Florida returns four starters from its 2025 national championship team. Thomas Haugh is positioned to win preseason Player of the Year honors, while Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu anchor the frontcourt. Denzel Aberdeen is currently eligible after receiving a legal injunction and may return from Kentucky. Head coach Todd Golden retains the No. 1 ranked team regardless of Aberdeen’s status, though the consistency of point guard Boogie Fland remains a key variable for the Gators.

Duke brings back four key players from last season’s No. 1 team and added the second-best recruiting class in the country. The Blue Devils also secured Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell, identified as the top guard in the portal. Jon Scheyer now has the deepest roster of his career. The team faces the task of adjusting to the departures of Cooper Flagg and Cameron Boozer while relying on Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer, Dame Sarr, and Patrick Ngongba II to step into larger roles.

Illinois retained five key players, a retention rate that rivals any program in the country. Brad Underwood supplemented this core with additions from the transfer portal and high school recruiting. David Mirkovic, Andrej Stojakovic, and Tomislav Ivisic are returning for another season. The Illini added Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks and top-25 recruit Quentin Coleman. Following their first Final Four appearance in 20 years, the team aims for a second consecutive deep run in the NCAA tournament.

The tier system includes a specific category for teams whose prospects hinge on eligibility rulings. Texas Tech and St. John’s sit at the top of this group. If their players in legal limbo are cleared to play, both programs become legitimate Final Four contenders. Texas Tech awaits decisions on Darrion Williams, Donovan Atwell, and Jamichael Stillwell. St. John’s is waiting on rulings for Keyshawn Hall, Babacar Sane, and Reed Bailey. Rick Pitino could start at least two of those players if they are cleared.

Other programs in the eligibility limbo tier include Gonzaga, BYU, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and LSU. LSU’s situation involves multiple recent court and NCAA decisions. Former St. John’s star RJ Luis Jr. is unlikely to play, but international additions Michael Ruzic and Saliou Niang have been cleared. UCLA transfers Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark were granted preliminary injunctions. Will Wade’s first season back in Baton Rouge depends on the final status of these players.

The tier list ends with a group of 10 mid-major clubs identified as potential threats in the NCAA tournament. The full breakdown covers 75 teams across 11 tiers. The list was designed to provide structure to a preseason defined by legal uncertainty. It allows fans to sort through the depth of talent while accounting for the variables that will not be resolved until the first day of competition.